I want to share something I’ve been seeing firsthand as someone who lives on the lake and has spent years helping families buy and sell waterfront properties throughout the northern suburbs. This isn’t speculation or fear-based content. It’s simply the truth that’s unfolding right in front of us, and I believe people deserve to know what’s coming.

Over the next three to five years, we are likely to see more lake homes hit the market than we’ve seen in the past decade combined. This shift will impact buyers, sellers, and the entire future of lake living in Minnesota.

Here’s what’s driving it.

1. Longtime Lake Owners Are Entering a New Season of Life

A large percentage of Minnesota’s lake homes were purchased 20 to 40 years ago. These homes have been the backdrop to decades of memories—kids growing up on the dock, Fourth of July gatherings, fishing at sunrise, and neighbors who feel more like family.

But for many longtime owners, a new stage of life is arriving. Downsizing, simplifying, moving closer to kids and grandkids—these decisions are becoming more common. Many who talked about selling “someday” are preparing to make that move.

This alone is going to release a level of inventory we haven’t seen in years.

2. Maintaining a Lake Home Isn’t Getting Easier

If you own a lake home, you already know this: they require more than a typical house.

There’s shoreline maintenance, dock systems, lifts, tree management, septic systems, erosion control, higher insurance demands, and year-round upkeep. As owners get older and homes continue to age, the work becomes heavier, not lighter.

I hear the same thing all the time:
“We love it here, but it’s getting to be a lot.”

That’s a major reason more lake homeowners will be choosing to sell.

3. Many Owners Have Significant Equity and Want to Use It Wisely

With how long many owners have held these properties, the amount of equity in lake homes is substantial. Some are paid off entirely. Others were purchased at values that would be considered unreal today.

Selling gives these families the chance to reorganize their retirement, reduce expenses, relocate, or help the next generation. It’s practical. It’s wise. And it’s happening more and more.

4. A Large Wave of Estate Transitions Is Coming

It’s not always easy to talk about, but it’s a reality: a significant number of lake homes will change hands through estates in the next several years.

And in most cases, the next generation doesn’t keep the property. Not because they don’t love it, but because:

• They don’t live nearby

• They have their own homes

• They don’t want the upkeep

• Multiple siblings can’t agree on shared ownership

In these situations, the property nearly always hits the open market. This alone will add a surge of lake listings.

5. The Post-COVID Backlog Is Finally Releasing

During the pandemic, practically no one sold their lake home. People held onto them, used them more, and stayed put.

Now we’re seeing a shift. Those delayed moves are finally happening, adding even more inventory to the wave already forming.

What This Means for Buyers

If you’ve been waiting for more options on the water, the next few years may be the best buying window we’ve seen in a long time. Inventory should increase across all price points and offer a mix of updated homes and properties ready for a fresh start.

Prepared buyers will find opportunities that simply haven’t existed for years.

What This Means for Sellers

If you’re considering selling your lake home, timing is everything.

Sellers who list earlier in this transition will face less competition and benefit from stronger buyer demand. Those who wait too long may find themselves competing with dozens of similar lake homes hitting the market at the same time.

Positioning yourself ahead of the curve could make a meaningful difference.

Final Thoughts

I’m sharing this because I care about the communities I serve. I live on the lake. I work these markets every day. And I genuinely want to help people make well-timed, well-informed decisions.

There’s no pressure to buy or sell. My goal is simply to help families understand what’s coming and navigate it with clarity and confidence.

If you ever want to talk through what this shift might mean for your situation—whether you’re thinking about selling, buying, or just planning for the future—I’m here. No obligation. Just honest guidance from someone who knows these lakes and these neighborhoods as well as anyone.

Ornell Group Real Estate | Tim Ornell

Tim Ornell | Real Luxury | Ornell Group Real Estate
Northern Suburbs Luxury & Waterfront Specialist
$200M+ Sold | 200+ Transactions
Real Luxury Division (Earned Through Luxury Sales Performance)
Institute for Luxury Home Marketing – GUILD Certified
[email protected] | ornellgroup.com

Content and insights provided by Ornell Group. Real estate services brokered by Real Broker. Luxury lake properties marketed through Ornell Group | Real Luxury. Select content enhanced and supported with AI-assisted tools used by our team. All market data, pricing, and property information subject to change.