Published by Ornell Group | Twin Cities New Construction & Lake Home Specialists
If you've been scrolling Zillow for a $1M+ new construction home in the east or north metro, you've probably noticed two things: inventory is sitting longer than it has in years, and builders are pushing incentive packages that would have been unthinkable 24 months ago.
That's not an accident. It's the math of a normalizing market — and for buyers in the $1M+ segment, it's the best window we've seen since 2020.
At Ornell Group, we work with buyers across the east and north metro every week who are tired of overpaying for dated resale inventory and ready to build something that actually fits their life. This is the guide we wish every one of them had before they started touring.
The Twin Cities new construction market, by the numbers
As of April 2026, across the east and north metro:
- 53 active new construction homes priced at $1M and above
- Average list price: $1.56M | Median: $1.30M
- Average days on market: 126 — and that's the number that matters
- 42 active 1+ acre lots priced $300K and up
- Lot pricing: average $1.12M / median $620K / average 12.29 acres
The 126-day average is the story. Homes are sitting. Builders are carrying inventory. And for the first time in five years, buyers — not sellers — have real leverage at the negotiating table.
Why 2026 is the best new construction window in five years
Three forces are lining up at once.
Interest rates have settled around 5.9%. High enough to slow demand — which means builders have to compete on price and terms instead of watching bidders fight over finished homes.
Resale inventory is still tight. Builder inventory is not. That imbalance is exactly why new construction is the smarter side of the trade right now.
The "next ring" migration is in full swing. Inner-ring suburbs have priced out even luxury buyers. The fastest-growing markets in the metro are now Hugo, Ham Lake, Forest Lake, Grant, and Chisago — places where you can still get acreage, a new build, and a short drive to real water.
The result: builders across the Twin Cities are offering the most aggressive incentive packages we've seen in over a decade. On a $1M+ new build, total incentive packages are routinely hitting $50,000 to $100,000+. More on how to stack those below.
The $1M+ new construction markets worth your attention
Here's how the current active inventory actually breaks down by market.
Ham Lake — 14 active $1M+ new builds
By far the deepest inventory in the east metro. Price range: $1.099M–$2.989M. Ham Lake is where the buildable acreage is, and where custom builders are most active. The 139th NE corridor is a clear custom-builder cluster with multiple listings priced $1.695M–$2.989M.
Land side: 8 active lots from $322K–$450K on 1–8.59 acres. Buildable inventory is strong for buyers going custom.
Why it works: Acreage, new custom home, Forest Lake school district, 30 minutes to downtown Minneapolis — and enough active inventory that builders will move on price.
Stillwater — 7 active $1M+ new builds
Concentrated on Ogden Trail N / Ogden N / Ordell N — effectively a new-build subdivision ranging from $1.225M to $2.500M. Five of the seven active listings sit within a few blocks of each other, which is rare. That cluster makes it unusually easy to compare floor plans, finish levels, and lot premiums in real time — which creates negotiation leverage.
Hugo — 7 active $1M+ new builds
The single best value play in the $1M+ new construction market right now. All 7 active listings fall between $1.002M and $1.350M, with strong square footage and modern design. This is Oneka Shores and Watercrest of Hugo territory— master-planned communities with ponds, walking paths, and (in Watercrest's case) Mahtomedi school district access.
Land side: 5 active Hugo lots from $300K (10 acres) up to $1.6M (2.69 acres on Everton Avenue N). One of the only east-metro markets where you can still get 10+ acres for under $400K.
Lake Elmo — 7 active $1M+ new builds
The market few buyers put on their list that absolutely deserves to be there. Range: $1.046M–$2.150M, concentrated on Royal N, Knightsbridge N, and Masters N. Easy access to 94 and 694, Stillwater lifestyle without the Stillwater price tag.
Grant — 2 active $1M+ new builds, both on Keswick
$2.099M and $2.699M. The scarcity is the opportunity. Grant offers larger lots, more privacy, and stronger long-term land value than anywhere closer in — and buyers are paying for it. Two active lots available (5 acres at $355K and 10 acres at $625K) make this a prime custom-build market.
North Oaks — 3 active $1M+ new builds
All in Spring Farm — a detached villa community at $1.02M–$1.316M. Narrow but real opportunity for downsizers and second-home buyers who want new construction in a premier school district.
Shoreview, Little Canada, Roseville
Smaller clusters of 2–3 active $1M+ new builds each. Worth a look if staying closer to 694 is important.
Dellwood — the ceiling
One listing — 22 Dellwood at $7.4M — but it resets the high-water mark for the entire region and tells you everything about where true lakefront land value sits.
The White Bear Lake and Forest Lake markets: off-market territory
Here's what the MLS doesn't show: currently no active $1M+ new construction listings directly in White Bear Lake or White Bear Township. And Forest Lake's $1M+ new-build inventory is thin.
That's not a dead end — it's a different strategy. In these markets, the wins come from:
- Legacy lakefront teardown and rebuild on Bald Eagle Lake, White Bear Lake, or Forest Lake
- Private, off-market estate transactions
- Builder-held parcels that never hit the MLS
Two active land listings tell the story in the White Bear area:
- 2515 Manitou, White Bear Lake — $3.5M for 1.57 acres of true lakefront ($2.24M/acre)
- 5285 Northwest, White Bear Lake — $1.395M for 9.99 acres
For context, the 22 Dellwood comp (1.54 acres at $4.2M land value) shows the ceiling. This is where having a buyer's agent who knows every lake and every aging lakefront home in the metro becomes the whole game.
The teardown play: why it's working in 2026
The math on a lake teardown has shifted. Most waterfront homes on White Bear, Bald Eagle, and Forest Lake were built between 1950 and 1990. They were designed for cabin lifestyles — small bedrooms, closed kitchens, no primary suite on main, limited flex space. Zoning in most lake communities prevents meaningful additions.
The result: land value on the best lots now far exceeds the structure's value, and tearing down to rebuild is often the only way to get a modern home on that lot.
Sample economics — White Bear Lake waterfront:
- Lot acquisition: $2.5M (aging lakefront home on 1 acre)
- Teardown + site prep: $250K
- Custom build: $1.2M–$1.8M
- All-in total: $3.95M–$4.55M
Compare that to a comparable recently-built waterfront home in the $4M–$5M range. Teardown wins on customization, certainty, and long-term resale — often with land equity still on your side from day one.
The builder incentive playbook — the five levers to pull
What most buyers don't realize: the incentive packages on a builder's website are usually the floor, not the ceiling. On inventory homes and specific lot positions, builders will stack incentives to move product. Here are the five levers active right now.
1. Rate buydowns — the biggest lever. Most builders are offering 2/1 buydowns structuring to a year-one rate of 2.875%–3.25%. On a $1.3M home, that's roughly a $1,800+/month savings in year one — about $22,000 in first-year cash flow. Some builders are offering permanent buydowns (30-year fixed at 4.25% instead of 5.9%) — that's life-changing math.
2. Closing cost credits. $5,000–$15,000+ toward closing. A few builders are offering up to 6% of purchase price on aging inventory.
3. Design center credits. Up to $30,000 off on upgrades — flooring, cabinetry, counters, lighting, plumbing. Real money back on custom builds.
4. Price reductions. With average DOM at 126 days, nearly every home that's sat more than 90 days has room in the list price. Don't assume list is list.
5. Lot premium waivers. On premium lot positions (cul-de-sac, walkout, extra depth, tree-lined), many builders will waive the $10K–$50K lot premium if you move quickly.
Who's most aggressive right now: national builders like Lennar, Pulte, M/I Homes, and D.R. Horton are leading on published incentives (Pulte is offering 4.25% rate, 50% off design, 6% toward closing on some inventory). Local custom builders — Robert Thomas Homes, Charles Cudd, Hanson Builders, Creative Homes, Norton Homes, JMS Custom Homes, Capstone Homes, Guidance Homes — price incentives into custom packages rather than advertise them.
Stacked together on a $1M+ home, these five levers commonly produce a $50,000–$100,000+ total incentive package— the equivalent of a 7%–15% price cut.
What's trending in Minnesota new builds right now
If you're designing or buying in 2026, know what's selling — and what's already dating homes built 18 months ago.
Wood tones. White oak is still dominant, but rift-sawn white oak is what luxury buyers are specifically asking for. Walnut is back for cabinetry and built-ins. Mixed woods (oak flooring + walnut cabinetry + pine accents) are the new move. Cool gray wood is out.
Color palettes. Warm whites, greige, clay, terracotta, muted earth tones for the base. Forest green, slate blue, charcoal, and olive as accents. Black is still in — as a supporting player, not the whole room.
Lighting. Oversized pendants, sculptural chandeliers, layered lighting. Matte black paired with unlacquered brass and warm brushed metallics. Chrome and polished nickel are out.
Open concept — the broken-plan era. Pure open concept is officially fatigued. What's winning now is "broken plan" — still open-feeling, but with subtle separators (half walls, glass partitions, oversized islands) that define cooking, dining, and living zones. Hidden kitchens are emerging in luxury builds.
Kitchens. Quartzite is overtaking quartz as the luxury countertop of choice. Hidden pantries and butler's pantries are standard at $1M+. Floor-to-ceiling cabinetry is in; open shelving is fading. Panel-ready appliances (fridges and dishwashers disguised as cabinetry) are now mainstream.
Exteriors. Modern farmhouse is past peak. The replacement: a transitional look — black windows, dark metal roof accents, mixed cladding (stone + lap siding + shake), warmer exterior palettes. Pure white board-and-batten everything is dating fast.
Outdoor living. Screened porches with vinyl or glass windows (year-round use) and fire features are two of the highest-ROI builder-option upgrades right now. On Minnesota lake and acreage properties, the home isn't finished without one or both.
The three paths to win in 2026
Most buyers default to scrolling Zillow for finished homes. That's almost always the most expensive way to buy new construction. The three paths below are how our clients are actually winning.
Path 1 — Buy an existing new construction listing and negotiate the incentive stack. Best for buyers who want certainty and a shorter timeline. With 53 active $1M+ new construction homes and a 126-day DOM average, builders are motivated. Focus on inventory homes that have been sitting — that's where the biggest incentive packages live. Best markets: Ham Lake, Stillwater/Ogden Trail, Hugo, Lake Elmo.
Path 2 — Buy a lot and build custom. Best for buyers who want exactly what they want. Buy one of the 42 active 1+ acre lots and work with a custom builder. Timeline: 12–18 months. Best fit for buyers at $1.5M+ who want full customization and long-term land equity.
Path 3 — Tear down and rebuild on a legacy lake lot. Best for lake-focused buyers willing to go through the process for a lot that can't be replicated. Target aging homes on White Bear Lake, Bald Eagle Lake, Forest Lake, Big Marine Lake, or Dellwood waterfront. Timeline: 18–24 months. Best for generational waterfront buyers.
The one question that decides which path is yours: Do I care more about the home, the timeline, or the lot?
- Timeline-first → Path 1
- Home-first → Path 2
- Lot-first → Path 3
Frequently asked questions
What's the average price of $1M+ new construction in the Twin Cities right now? Across the east and north metro, the average list price on active $1M+ new builds is $1.56M with a median of $1.30M. Average days on market is 126 — meaningfully longer than a year ago.
Which Twin Cities market has the most $1M+ new construction inventory? Ham Lake, with 14 active listings ranging from $1.099M to $2.989M. Stillwater, Hugo, and Lake Elmo each have 7 active listings.
Is new construction actually a better deal than resale in 2026? For buyers in the $1M+ segment, often yes — because of the size of current builder incentive packages. Rate buydowns, closing credits, design credits, and price reductions routinely stack to $50K–$100K+ on new construction. That level of seller concession is rare on resale.
Can I still buy a lakefront lot under $1M in the Twin Cities? Yes, but it depends on the lake. True White Bear Lake and Dellwood lakefront is clearing $2M+ per acre. But lake-access and secondary-lake lots in Hugo, Forest Lake, Lindstrom, and Chisago County still trade under $1M — and off-market lakefront opportunities come up regularly.
What's the best market for custom builds on acreage? Ham Lake and Grant for 5–10 acre custom-build foundations. Forest Lake for true large-acreage parcels (one active listing is 97.59 acres at $980K). Hugo for 2–10 acre parcels in master-planned settings.
How long does a custom build take in the Twin Cities? Plan on 12–18 months from lot close to move-in on a custom build, 18–24 months on a teardown-and-rebuild. Inventory new construction closes in 60–90 days.
Ready to get strategic?
This guide gives you the lay of the land. The actual right move depends on your budget, timeline, and target market. That's a conversation, not a blog post.
Book a free 30-minute new construction strategy call with Ornell Group. We'll walk through which active listings fit your goals, where the biggest incentive stack lives right now, and whether Path 1, Path 2, or Path 3 makes the most sense for you. We'll also share off-market lots and teardown opportunities we're tracking that never hit the MLS.
No pressure. No pitch. Just a real conversation with local experts who do this every day.
Ornell Group — Your Twin Cities new construction and lake home specialists.
All MLS data reflects active listings as of April 21, 2026 — Regional MLS of Minnesota. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
